2012年2月28日星期二

Don't put India's GDP growth of China seriously

The international monetary fund (IMF) data showed that in 2010, India's GDP growth reached 10.4%, China's GDP growth 10.3% more than 0.1%. To this, India some media can't help reported, this is by China since the 1980 s after the reform, India economic growth for the first time more than China. In addition, according to officials of the two countries economic data to predict, China in "1025" (2011-2015) during the period of GDP growth will reach 7%, India will reach 9%. In "1025" during China's GDP growth 7% of arrangement, let India was overjoyed, is also suits them. Indian securities company iifl President think, if only 7% of China's GDP growth, as long as India over the next few years continue to keep the 8.5% to 9% annual growth rate in India will be in 10 years catch China. Reading the Indian officials of words,baseball hats let us feel, the Indian finally has a good chance to catch China. If the face and benefit from two aspects are not reasonable to explain to India's GDP growth of obsession. Maybe, in some people's eyes, India, their countries also are in China and endure a GDP of life and death in racing, if China before entering India developed status, India's prosperity road will be in relation to China. But, error, one-sided draw lessons from history than not draw lessons from history and terrible, Indian if really copy before the mid-twentieth century history of the great powers of competition to idea and the competition between China, ten to one let himself go wrong. Observers note that, 1962 years after the war and India, indians have been suffering from fear China disease, especially China's fast developing economy, become the second largest economy after the United States, therefore, the Indian people always feel living in China giant side sleep not pragmatic, think this is the great challenge in India. Relations between the two countries in the fierce competition of the relationship, India policy makers would like to believe, fast economic growth and democratic system for India will provide long-term competitive advantage. So, "India is China's" the capital of??? What??? Analysts think: one is the population. Now, the Indian people are held to breath, trying to more than China. Even if economic miss, spelling's birth rate will be in more than the total population of China. In their view, the growth of the population will bring India into the working age population proportion of the total population of the larger population bonus period, thus for economic development created favourable conditions of the population. The second is system. Indeed, according to western standards to measure, India's political system is democracy. The significant features two: one is the legacy of colonial times, on the other hand with a profound traditional culture and religion India color. The decision to India's democratic particularity. Specifically, the political system is the religious and political system of the caste. Since India for national independence movement period began, and its complex religious problems will influence the ever-present in the future the formation and development of the political system. For the latter, although India previous governments, has been committed to the secularization of politics, but the strong religious color had been unable to change, "the Hindu communalist-oriented" and "islamic sect socialism" in the serious opposition, even sparked a series of major bloodshed, and the serious influence of contemporary Indian political development process, this is actually previous governments in economic growth and social justice to take "fair priority" between the policy is an important background. Looking back on the past, India's economic scale 500 years ago has accounted for 30% of the world, second only to China. And in India declared independence in 1947, the industry in the world within 10 strong strength, far exceeding the then Chinese. But, China after 60 years of development, especially the development of 30 years of reform and opening-up, the GDP is already 3 times of India. Therefore, in 10 years, India will have to catch China are torn up. However, some of the more rational person in India 10% of India's continued growth target are skeptical. Former Indian finance minister jose mourinho and cheddar rumsfeld says that, in discussion before catch China,buy sunglasses we first need to consider is that India's economy can achieve long-term growth rate of more than 9%. Besides, India to achieve such a growth depends on the global economic recovery situation, and not just India domestic consumption growth. His statement is not without reason. In fact, sometimes can only confuse the human eye data, how much more will or India's wishful thinking. Therefore, we don't have to India's GDP growth more than China seriously. In China and Germany, Japan's competition, not more than they are? In 2008, China more than Germany, this year China more than Japan, second only to the United States as the world's second largest economy. Indian dream waiting to India passed China, in order to prove their system is superior, but they don't want to see China's GDP growth has more than India's teacher. The next 10 years, or even a longer time, exactly China and India's GDP is what circumstance, it is only by a few years later to test and verify.

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