2011 years think of an accident

In the inflation pressure, reduce trade surplus savings rate decline, any factors effect, whether Japan will debt crisis? In 2011 of the global economy and financial markets may surprise impact is going to be? The European debt crisis? North Korea conflict? This is not an accident, accident can be a crisis and the severity of the conflict. I think of accident is Japan's debt crisis and, of course, that there may be the real accident. If of government liabilities scale, Japan is to be much higher than the Europe and America. The Japanese government FuZhaiE more than 170% of GDP, of which a great part of is short, therefore were released last year 140 trillion yen, most is to borrow is also new old, but there are still more than a third, or 50 trillion yen is new debt. The Japanese government debt of low interest rate to 1.5% on average, but every year these liabilities the interest expenses of Japan still accounts for 25% of government revenue. Also means that the Japanese government future need to release of the new debt will increase year by year. However, Japan this situation is not began in this day,New Era Hats but have already, many years to enron have no matter, why has worried about today? Yes, since 1990 the Japanese economic bubble burst, Japan basically long-term deflationary edge, CPI from 1991 in about 4%, to 1994 for the first time appear negative, then until today, most of the time are negative or in the negative edge, so the funds rate year after year down, such as short-term funds rate in 1991 about 6.88% in 1994 and by 3% in 1999 and by 1.38%, now close to zero. This means that the Japanese government financing cost more and more low, so liabilities scale more and more large, and what? It also let the past long-term see light the Japanese government bond pains. Leverage is so high, the most to worry about is the rising cost of financing, economic environment from deflation to inflation. Compared with the United States, Japan may be more early appear inflation. As a result, the emerging market inflation has been more apparent. Japan's energy, raw materials and part of finite intermediate and consumer goods are imported, also faces inflation pressures. Secondly, Japan's real estate after 20 years of a bear market, the house price index is now still in the early 90 s when a quarter to a third of the peak, the authors speculated that the future house prices stable, rent will be stable or tend to rise. But still not sure whether this year above factor in how to constitute the Japanese inflationary pressure. Another may lead to the Japanese government financing costs, the factor of the savings rate is residents in Japan in rapid decline. Different from the United States, the Japanese government bond buyers is mainly domestic residents. But with the 90 s Japan's savings rate of 13%-15% is different, only 3% of Japan's savings rate today-5%. And, to a great extent, this decline is not the Japanese public consumption habits change, but the declining ability of the economy to create wealth. This means that the Japanese residents can lend the money the government has greatly reduced, in other words, the Japanese government bonds to the country demand is falling, and supply in the increase, so the Japanese government may need to pay higher interest rates. Third, support the Japanese economy, society and monetary stability of the important factors, is Japan has long been maintain trade surplus. This is a miracle of the Japanese economy. In the past 20 years, 30 years, no matter how the yen appreciation, no matter the pace of appreciation or amplitude, seem to have no impact on Japanese long-term, sustained international trade surplus, thus maintaining the stability of the yen. But in 2008 after the financial crisis, this situation is changing. For example, Japanese trade ShunChaE is a decade or two years ago from more than 10 trillions of yen, down to 2009 in 20000, more than yen. Japan will from a long-term trade ShunChaGuo, become a trade deficit countries? If can, does it mean that Japan will from a provider of global capital, has become a global capital recipients, or at least the country in overseas funds back? If so, the government's bond interest rate will and international funds rate in English. If above three factors have a appear, the market may review and questioned the Japanese government debt paying ability, sparking a small crisis. The corresponding market performance will be??? What??? First, the Japanese yen fell; Second, the Japanese government bonds fell; Third, Japan's stock is down; Fourth,buy sunglasses the United States government bonds fell; Fifth, the global rise in the cost of capital. The crisis is small, because after all, Japan and large foreign exchange reserves, after all, inflation is not too serious, residents in Japan has not use Qing savings. If the crisis really appear, just changes of economic and social image, Japan's role in the global economy, or to the Japanese economy form the natural views.

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