China's economic growth by half is not impossible

The international monetary fund (IMF) in Beijing representative office recently released a report says, if Europe's debt crisis continue to deteriorate, China's economic growth may reduce nearly half, and this will certainly prompted the Chinese government to implement "significant" fiscal stimulus policies. The IMF said the report, according to the organization for the global economy do "downside" predicts that China's rate of growth this year may be from the organization in China at present the economy have projections fell 4% at most 8.2%. In the government or economists expressed that 2012 Chinese economy will remain above 8% growth, the IMF thrown at this time China's economic growth will only 4% growth,best sunglasses really made people in for a surprise. Of course, the IMF official warned not forecast, but as the scene analysis of simulation, however, in the more evident globalization, China's economy may not possess. An unavoidable, the reality is, in the world at present main media in network on the front page, almost without exception will "slow" and "cooling" as the headlines, the global economic gloom of the major economies increasingly obvious, therefore, "slow" and "cooling" these keywords, has become a more and more countries in the mainstream media, the most common use of the most concentrated two words. In this sense, the IMF puts forward "China's economic growth in half" warning is worthy of our attention. In the 1990 s, people have put a similar reason, demonstrate, "Asian tigers" can continue to enjoy strong growth. But the results proved that they but is based on excessive investment on the basis of a mirage. Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are only keep the high 30 years--China came to this pass. Japan in the preliminary stage of industrialization ended, growth rate dropped by half, in the next 25 years economic the average annual growth of 4.6%, then slow further. From China's economic growth of the three carriages to see, in 2012, we can't on foreign trade net export growth reported the etheric great hope: a shrinking economy, international trade friction increases, the yuan appreciation pressure and the domestic market price for all elements of export growth caused significant impact. This means that, 2012 net exports to GDP growth may be the contribution of negative, and consumption and investment may be their respective contribution about half of GDP growth. People remember, September 2008 and October, China's export growth is 22%, by November a financial crisis impact is down to 2.5%. The month of value added of industry rate reduced from 5% to, and the power supply growth is negative, estimate the economic growth is 5%. And now with the 2008 financial crisis situation is very similar, the world economy on China's economic impact is so big. Further reasoning, exports fell on domestic industrial growth will influence is very large, and export value because of domestic value added of industry of more than 50%. And another influence on China's economic growth of real estate has to depression, from nov. 2011 to now, real estate has three months sales year-on-year. According to the experience and see, the housing sales year-on-year last six months or so, the housing inventory to pressure will into reality, and because the real estate industry at the top of the whole economic system resources of the thirty percent, its violent shake, is bound to lead to the whole China's economic growth continued slowdown. Signs from view,cheap new era hats China's economy in 2012 years, "hard" risk sharply. The Wall Street journal in May 2011, a risk manager to the United States, according to the survey, 14% of respondents said China's economy "hard" is the first big new risks, in 2009, only 4% of the people who share this view. And if now to do such survey, the result will be more disappointing. Earlier this year in the world of davos economic BBS annual meeting, some participants believe that markets will China economic landing, the developed countries of the financial crisis, and a wide range of asset prices collapse, as this year and the next few years the greatest risks to global stability. These theory sounds natural some not pleasant, but it is we have to face the reality. Of course, since most people are in the habit of life, but in the history of the violent transformation period, but it is often used to be our biggest enemy. In the last 30 years, many people form one of the biggest habits, is the sustainable growth of China's economy. Whether folk grass roots, or elite class, all of China's economic growth for the ability for granted. Even those who have prudent sceptical observers, also after in the 21 st century, the Chinese economy completely accept as a car "is always high speed running the locomotive of the" concept. However, this kind of understanding is the time for a change-China's economic growth by half is not impossible. The growth of China's economy than quality growth rate important, and in the long run, China's economic growth will continue for many years, which include China's per capita GDP is still very low, with a great growth space. Meanwhile, China is also enjoy a "late" advantage, can avoid other countries had made mistakes.

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